Russia or Georgia, not quite sure, looking over the border to the other side.
It’s the Machiavellian Game: Georgia does need to veil their own governing idioti-cy; responding to Russian power games allows this. Russia knows this so Russia can push and prod Georgia by increasing military in the Russian-claimed independent states because Georgia will buy into this game for such reasons and Russia can flex their power muscle at these regions to gain regional political support and not piss off any other major political power in the world.
It has been argued that Russia does not want political control of Georgia or they would have swept in and taken it last year with military force: I find this a laughable argument. Had Russia done this they would have committed quite a political suicide move; NATO, the international court, the west in general would have responded with political might against Russia had this happened. And Russia cannot deal with that; right now they need to present themselves as powerful and influential to keep their political influence growing.
I have also read some complaints that the USA needs to step in and do something about this; militarily speaking. (1) this has little to do with the USA outside of NATO; (2) for a large part that would be a stupid political move; of course right-winged Americans would presumably thoroughly enjoy this; (3) I believe they had done enough last time by giving Georgia the go-ahead to attack and by rather immediately stepping up in the Baltic with a mass of Navy for a “routine military rotation” for “humanitarian aid.”
Words of Wisdom!
I find the foreseeable to be another conflict where fingers can again be pointed at both. Russia will probably receive more support, unless they do something stupid; for more political gain will perceivably be gained by supporting Russia than Georgia; though we shall see. Russia will respond with might because they need to look strong and in control, to spread their influence and gain more support from the “independent states”; Georgia will try to respond with might to veil their contemporary, teetering government and to attempt to gain support of the people and perhaps other governments by fighting for a united Georgia and “protecting” Georgians from Russian control. NATO may step in, especially if the conflict lasts long enough. Following the conflict the Russian-claimed independent states will still not be declared as independent by most anyone else. And people will die being used as political pawns in the Machiavellian game of politics!
<http://www.topix.com/us/2009/06/chances-rising-for-fresh-georgia-russia-war>
<http://www.azernews.az/site/shownews.php?news_id=12993>
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war>
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/16/AR2008081600502_pf.html>
<http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/wr2009_web.pdf>
<http://www.mdb.cast.ru/mdb/3-2008/item3/article1/>
<http://www.isdp.eu/files/publications/pp/08/0808Georgia-PP2.pdf>
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world/europe/07georgia.html?_r=1>
